Systemic risk and cross-sectional hedge fund returns

Systemic Risk, the TED Spread and Hedge Fund Returns

This study examines the effects of systemic risk on global hedge fund returns. We consider systemic risk as a conditional information variable to predict the underlying exposures to various asset market returns and risk factors. This study examines a proxy for global systemic risk employed by investment professionals known as the Treasury/Eurodollar (TED) spread. The findings reveal that increa...

Failure Risk and the Cross-Section of Hedge Fund Returns

On average, hedge funds experience slow failures rather than sudden crashes. I model a fund’s probability of failure using a dynamic logit regression and find that fund failures are predicted by even 7-month lagged information. Hedge funds fail slowly as investors withdraw their funds over a period of time because of poor performance. Also, longer share restriction periods and the presence of m...

Systematic risk and the cross-section of hedge fund returns

Sentiment Risk and Hedge Fund Returns

This paper documents a new and important cross-sectional determinant of hedge fund returns, their exposures to sentiment risk, measured as beta of fund returns to fluctuations in sentiment proxies. For a large sample of equity-oriented hedge funds, those whose sentiment beta ranks in the top decile subsequently outperform the bottom decile by 0.67% per month, after controlling for fund’s exposu...

Hedge fund systemic risk signals

In this paper we realize an early warning system for hedge funds based on specific red flags that help to detect symptoms of impending extreme negative returns and contagion effect. To do this we rely on regression trees analysis identifying a series of splitting rules which act as risk signals. The empirical findings prove that contagion, crowded-trade, leverage commonality and liquidity conce...